I think I will increasingly use my blog to posit and collect my thoughts ahead of my dissertation (well... I should be doing it now, but you know... I have other things to do).

My current musings are on an event that happened only days ago in Japan, but one that is definitely not unique to it. It is an issue of the derivation of sovereignty, and failure in representative government. As I'm sure the majority of us know, representative government fails us quite a lot.

In Iwakuni, Yamaguchi Prefecture (the south-west of Japan's main island, Honshu), there are plans to move 57 US Marine Corps aircraft and their accompanying support personnel into the airbase there. Now, the US presence in Japan has been a particularly testy issue since the gangrape of a schoolgirl by US Marines in Okinawa (the most southernly, tropical island), 1995. The perception that crimes are what foreigners do is obviously not helped by such incidents. Like all governments that welcome US military bases, they have to deal with the fact that no-one wants to live next to a base.

In this case, people decided they did not want to see an increase in personnel at Iwakuni Air Station and so held a local people's vote (a plebiscite). Nearly 50,000 residents voted, and of them 87% said no to the plans. How can one argue with such an outcry? The people have spoken, and their representatives should follow through, right?

In this case, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe (and near guarantee for premiership when Koizumi retires his post this year) has ruled out any changes to the realignment plan. This part of a larger spring clean for US forces, and the Japanese government is trying to mediate. For the government it is Catch 22: they need the US for security (I will probably discuss the reasons why some other time), but the people don't want them.

My own survey of 74 people from various places (with a large representation from Hokkaido, with few US bases) currently has 65% of respondants seeing the US as a threat (severe, major or minor). Admittedly, the largest group right now is 24% which state that the US is no threat, but the significance is clouded by 22% stating that it is a MAJOR threat to Japan. Indeed, until I added the bulk of my Hokkaido responses, the 'No Threat' option was much much lower. Now, I am not saying this directly forms the opposition to base realignment, but rather feeling threatened by the US would obviously translate into some hostility to having a base nearby.

Perhaps this is more of a NIMBY phenomenon: Not in My Backyard. Japan needs the US, but no-one wants foreign soldiers dating their daughters, speaking their foreign languages, and doing jockish type stuff around their town or city. But as representatives of the people, isn't the government obliged to do as they wish? Or does the government's role as leadership mean that they have the greater good at heart? 87% is a bloody high statistic, if it were a vote of confidence for a leader, that leader could be content. It is a powerful statistic, it holds a lot more force behind it than my own... But, as the term Catch 22 has come to imply: there is no right choice. If anything, it shows that security will always trump other issues in politics.

PS: If you are a Japanese citizen between 20-29 years old (over the course of this year), get in touch... please! I could do with some more responses.