Well, I'm feeling a bit better, been fighting Fresher's Flu, but I'm getting there. I got back from a lecture by a Labour minister who chaired the Intelligence and Security Agencies Committee (Britain's parliamentary oversight committee). In half an hour I will watch the controversial documentary 'The Death of a President' which is a what-if about the current US president's assassination. Before all that, I want to discuss the situation in North Korea.

As you'll know, if you live on this planet, North Korea announced it had conducted a nuclear test. Based on South Korean seisometers, the test only weighed in at 0.8 kilotonnes (thousands of tonnes of dynamite). Although the Russians said it was somewhere between 5 and 15. Now the US is saying that radiation tests of air samples are coming up negative.

There are four possible explanations of the North Korean nuclear test: complete success, partial success, failure, and fake. A complete failure seems unlikely given the seismic readings. The first case seems increasingly unlikely: South Korea should have picked up something far more notable, and even though the test was underground, I'm sure that US tests would be more conclusive even at this point. I think the others are all more likely. A partial success would explain the low-yield... A fake test is also completely possible, lets assume the South Korean result is correct making the yield equal to 800 tonnes of TNT, about 600 tonnes of plastic explosives.

It would not be too unthinkable to imagine a faked test... all it would need is truckloads of explosive. I think the partial success scenario is more likely. 0.8kT is a pitiful amount. Hiroshima's bomb was about 15kT. If you were going to impress, you'd want at least that. The Russian estimate is actually not too dissimiliar to estimates of Pakistan's tests. I would just expect South Korea's readings to be more accurate. It seems more likely that the DPRK tested the bomb, something went wrong with the trigger, and like the Taepodong test, we won't hear that from the regime itself.

It should be noted that North Korea is not simply bat-shit crazy. I am through with hearing this bullshit from commentators (particularly bloggers), but also fellow students. North Korea's actions are completely understandable from a rational perspective. The DPRK needs nuclear weaponry to ensure the stability of its regime. Kim Jong-Il's statesmanship is unorthodox, but bloody effective. It's brinksmanship that works. As a weak power, appearing reckless suits their purpose. Particularly while they hold Seoul hostage (the South Korean capital is within conventional artillery range).

The coming weeks will be particularly interesting as we learn more from our governments' intelligence.